In this model, what is the probability that the initiative (which I see is modeled as costing $6-39M) is successful? Or is it assumed that in the case where it isn’t going to succeed, the cost is limited to the cost of polling ($50-300k)?
Did you collect base rate information for other initiatives before campaigns (which tend to lower approval relative to pre-campaign polling) for that parameter?
In this model, what is the probability that the initiative (which I see is modeled as costing $6-39M) is successful? Or is it assumed that in the case where it isn’t going to succeed, the cost is limited to the cost of polling ($50-300k)?
Did you collect base rate information for other initiatives before campaigns (which tend to lower approval relative to pre-campaign polling) for that parameter?